Home Purchase Loans

Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, November 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 510k +4.1% $480,800 +1.1% Midwest 970k -2.0% $319,400 +5.8% South 1.89m +1.1% $361,000 +0.8% West 760k 0.0% $618,900 -0.9%

The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index--a development that could be confused for something encouraging.  But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic held steady at 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. Future sales expectations improved one point to 52, extending a three-month stretch above breakeven. “Market conditions remain challenging with two-thirds of builders reporting they are offering incentives to move buyers off the fence,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Meanwhile, builders are contending with rising material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs.” Pricing pressure continues to do much of the heavy lifting. NAHB reports that 40% of builders cut home prices in December, marking the second consecutive month at or above that level. The average price reduction eased to 5%, down from 6% in November, while the use of sales incentives climbed to 67%—the highest share in the post-Covid period. Regionally, the three-month moving averages show a broad-based but still uneven improvement. The Northeast slipped to 47, while the Midwest strengthened to 43. The South rose to 36 and the West improved to 34, though both regions remain more acutely exposed to affordability pressures.

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity declined 3.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12. Unadjusted applications fell 5% from the prior week, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown as the year draws to a close. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 86% higher than the same week one year ago, underscoring continued refinance interest as rates remain rangebound. Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 3% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications declined 7% week-over-week but are still running 13% above last year’s pace. “Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.” The refinance share of applications increased to 59.0% from 58.2% the previous week. ARM share rose to 7.2%. FHA share edged lower to 19.5%, while VA share increased to 16.6%. USDA share increased to 0.4%.

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior week. Unadjusted purchase applications increased 32% week-over-week due to the holiday comparison and are running 19% above last year’s pace, supported by gradually improving affordability and inventory conditions. “Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28. Unadjusted applications were down sharply (33%) due to the holiday. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 109% higher than the same week one year ago—still a significant year-over-year improvement, even as borrowers appear to be waiting for lower rate levels before jumping in more aggressively. Purchase applications were more resilient, rising 3% seasonally adjusted. On an unadjusted basis, purchases fell 32% from the prior week (again largely driven by the holiday), but remain 17% above last year’s levels—a continued sign of underlying buyer demand supported by easing prices and gradually improving inventory conditions. The index is currently at the highest level since early 2023. “Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent after steadily increasing over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some buyers back into the market.”

Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-City Composite rose 0.1% month-over-month , consistent with the broader cooling trend as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand and affordability. Both indices point to similar conditions: slower appreciation, weaker monthly momentum, and home-price growth now trailing inflation. This shift further tightens affordability and underscores a market that has transitioned into a slower, more restrained phase of the cycle. Conforming Loan Limit Update (2026) The FHFA announced that the 2026 baseline conforming loan limit for one-unit properties is $832,750 , an increase of $26,250 from 2025. High-cost areas will see a limit of $1,249,125 , or 150% of the national baseline. These updates reflect slower—but still positive—home-price appreciation over the past year and will shape eligibility and pricing for conforming mortgages.

Existing-home sales posted another modest gain in October, rising 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales are now 1.7% higher than a year ago as lower mortgage rates helped offset the drag from the government shutdown. Demand continues to run stronger than it did through most of 2023 and early 2024, even if the overall pace remains historically subdued. “Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He highlighted regional differences for first-time buyers: limited supply in the Northeast and high prices in the West kept activity in check, while the Midwest and South benefited from better affordability and more available listings. Yun added that decelerating rents should continue easing inflation and encouraging further Fed rate cuts, which would support additional housing demand. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, October 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 490k 0.0% $503,700 +6.5% Midwest 990k +5.3% $319,500 +4.6% South 1.86m +0.5% $362,300 +0.3% West 760k -1.3% $628,500 +0.1%

Mortgage applications moved lower last week as rates continued drifting higher for a third straight week. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 14 showed a 5.2% drop in total volume on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 7% decline unadjusted. The Refinance Index fell 7% from the previous week but is still running 125% above last year’s levels. Even with the pullback, refi activity remains firmly in recovery territory compared to the past two years. That said, the recent rate bump pushed the average refinance loan size to its lowest reading since August, underscoring just how sensitive the category remains to even small rate moves. Purchase activity was more stable, slipping 2% seasonally adjusted and 7% unadjusted. Despite the weekly decline, purchase volume is still 26% higher than the same week one year ago—another sign that buyer demand is meaningfully stronger than it was in late 2023 and early 2024. “Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level.” The refinance share of applications dipped to 55.4%. ARM share fell to 7.5%, while FHA, VA, and USDA shares all moved slightly higher.

Builder confidence levels are still kicking the same sad little can down the road, just with slightly more enthusiasm. The November National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) inched up to 38 from 37 in October, marking the 19th straight month below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Looking at the underlying components, we find the same deck of cards shuffled in a slightly different order. The component for current sales conditions improved two points to 41 and the buyer traffic index ticked up one point to 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. The index tracking sales expectations over the next 6 months actually fell three points to 51, which is still modestly positive but not exactly a vote of confidence in a near-term boom. Affordability remains the main villain. Even after pulling back from peak levels, mortgage rates are high enough that a lot of would-be buyers are still on the sidelines. Any sustained move toward lower rates would help unstick that buyer traffic index, but for now, builders are operating in a world where financing costs are still a big constraint. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure was especially evident in this particular installment. NAHB reports that 41% of builders cut home prices in November, the first time this metric has broken above 40% in the post-Covid era. The average reduction was 6%, and 65% of builders used sales incentives, matching the elevated levels seen in September and October. In other words, builders are still doing a lot of financial gymnastics just to get deals across the finish line.

Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, even as rates ticked slightly higher. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and dipped 1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index fell 3% from the previous week but remains 147% higher than the same week one year ago. Despite the pullback, refi activity is still running at levels far stronger than anything seen in 2023 or 2024. Larger-balance borrowers continue to drive the category, though rising rates led to the smallest average refinance loan size in more than a month. Viewed in context, refi demand is still well into post-2020 recovery territory, even if weekly swings look choppy. “Purchase applications picked up almost 6 percent over the week to the strongest pace since September, despite mortgage rates increasing slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans increased, as potential homebuyers continue to shop around, particularly in markets where inventory has increased and sales price growth has slowed. Based on the unadjusted purchase index for the week, this was the strongest start to November since 2022.” He added that higher rates cooled refi demand, particularly among conventional and VA borrowers. Purchase activity rose 6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3% unadjusted, climbing 31% above the same week a year ago. After the slower stretch in late summer and early fall, purchase volume is finally showing signs of seasonal resilience.